Is there a danger of a wider escalation of the conflict?
Iraq could become the theatre of a new proxy war
Topic:
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatens acts of revenge for the death of terrorist general Qassem Soleimani. Donald Trump threatens retaliatory strikes. A supra-regional escalation of the conflict cannot be ruled out. This could weld the Shiite Arabs in southern Iraq closer together with the Iranians against the USA.
In recent months, various Iranian opposition groups had been able to bring demonstrations against the regime in Tehran onto the streets. Resentment over the social and economic situation, which has also been exacerbated by the ongoing sanctions, began to take hold. But then everything changed.
The regime once again rallied the population behind it.
The killing of the Iranian terrorist general Qassem Soleimani suddenly turned the situation upside down. Now a large part of the Iranian population is once again united behind the regime and their Ayatollah. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets to pay their last respects to their "hero" as a "martyr". Hundreds of thousands were again on the streets for his funeral procession in Kerman. The crowd was so large that panic broke out in some places and around 40 people were trampled to death.
The regime in Tehran celebrates the mourning for their "hero". It knows how to unite the masses against an external enemy. The US military strike has given them the appropriate pretext to do so. Even though the military strike that killed Soleimani can be morally justified if one evaluates its actions and plans in unfolding the war of terror and proxy in the Middle East, it can, however, turn out to be a big mistake tactically. For the Iranian policy of proxy wars in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen will continue unabated under his new successor. Moreover, the attack unites the Shiite Arabs of southern Iraq with the likewise Shiite Iranians.
Worst scenario: international escalation
If Iran implements its revenge in the form of horrific acts of terror against US facilities and against Israeli targets, US retaliation will follow immediately. There is no question about it. Both sides are threatening each other with disproportionate force. This is meant to have a deterrent effect.
The worst-case scenario would be a Franz Ferdinand effect, triggering the spiral to full-scale war. For if Iran overreacts and forces Israel and the USA to launch a full-scale counter-attack, then all the states of the Middle East, from Turkey and Syria to Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia, are automatically involved. Further escalation could also drag China and Europe into the conflict. But it does not have to come to that
The most likely scenario: proxy war in Iraq
We have a multiple proxy war in Syria and a proxy war in Yemen. The policy of the slain General Qassem Soleimani was to strengthen the Shiite axis against Israel and the Sunni Muslims. This axis links majority Shia Iran with majority Shia southern Iraq (Basra), with the Alawite Assad regime in Damascus and with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This axis is Israel's greatest strategic concern. For it bridges the distance between Tehran and Jerusalem.
The second Shiite axis links the Shiite Ayatollah regime with the Shiite minority on the Gulf coast in eastern Saudi Arabia and with the likewise Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen. In contrast, there is the alliance of Sunni and Wahhabi forces under the leadership of Saudi Arabia.
The USA, Israel and Saudi Arabia thus form a kind of alliance of convenience against Tehran and Damascus. But an open confrontation has been avoided until now. The new escalation, however, could lead to the proxy war from Syria and Yemen spreading again to Iraq. This would again open the wound between Arab Sunnis, Arab Shiites and Kurds in Iraq.
The withdrawal of troops by the Americans and their allies in the anti-IS (IS) coalition could be an indication that either the situation in Iraq is considered too threatening or that a military strike on Iraqi soil against Al-Quds brigades and Shiite militias is imminent.
Soleimani was killed in Iraq. The question of Iraq's power, indeed the question of its continued existence as a state, has not yet been settled. Iraq was anyway created on the drawing board of the British colonial powers after the Sykes-Picot Agreement and after the First World War. It is an artificial entity, just as Syria and Jordan are. Iran, on the other hand, in its present form, is a historically evolved nation, even if not all Iranians are Persian (there are Arab minorities in the south, Kurdish in the west, Azerbaijani in the north and Baluchi in the east).
Iran is difficult to occupy because of its size, population (about 80 million) and geography. So a shift of the conflict to Iraq, already torn apart and influenced by Iran in the south, is very likely. This could add years to the Iraqis' ordeal.
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