After French President Emmanuel Macron declared at the end of February that he could not rule out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine, Beatrix von Storch (AfD) asked the "Scientific Services of the Bundestag" what impact a deployment of ground troops by a NATO state would have with regard to the so-called Alliance case, in which NATO members are obliged to stand up for each other [see "Welt" report].

The assessment of the Bundestag's scientific services is a wake-up call:

According to their assessment, the deployment of ground troops by a NATO country in Ukraine would not automatically turn all other NATO states into parties to the conflict. It is true that the country in question would itself become a party to the conflict. But as long as it intervenes unilaterally and outside of existing NATO command structures, NATO will not become a party to the conflict.

The paper also states:

"A military engagement of French ground forces in favour of Ukraine would be based on the collective right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and would therefore be permissible under international law." [...] "A military reaction by Russia against targets in France, on the other hand, would constitute an 'armed attack' (contrary to international law) within the meaning of Art. 5 of the NATO Treaty, which would establish the factual requirements for a proclamation of the NATO alliance case."

If this view is actually shared by the governments of Berlin, Paris, Warsaw and Washington, this means that we can very probably expect unofficial troop deployments from major NATO states to Ukraine.

This opens the door to further military escalation.